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Ingolstadt B vs Kornburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Ingolstadt B

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kornburg

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.3%0-22.9%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.1%1-17.3%1-26.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.4%3-16.0%3-25.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.5%4+-24.9%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 31.3% — — —

Over 2.5 75.9% — — —

Over 3.5 56.2% — — —

BTTS 73.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob73.8%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ingolstadt B2.2

Kornburg1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INGOLSTADT B · PPG 1.64

KORNBURG · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Ingolstadt B (H) 48.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kornburg (A) 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ingolstadt B face Kornburg in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ingolstadt B a 48% chance, the draw 20% and Kornburg 31%, so Ingolstadt B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ingolstadt B and 1.8 for Kornburg (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ingolstadt B are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.43 for Kornburg. This match finished 1-0.

Ingolstadt B vs Kornburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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