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Excursionistas vs Ituzaingó Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 23:00

Excursionistas

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

UPCOMING

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 77% chance

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-12.7%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.4%1-16.5%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.3%2-18.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.5%3-16.6%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-17.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.8% 78.1% 1.28 -5.5%

Draw 18.1% 22.2% 4.50 -11.1%

Away win 8.1% 11.1% 9.00 -16.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% 29.4% 3.40 +17.3%

BTTS 48.0% 38.2% 2.62 +25.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 65.4% 1.53 +1.4%

Away O1.5 14.0% 14.3% 7.00 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 178 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 17.5%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.0%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 3–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excursionistas2.5

Ituzaingó0.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 2.12

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

77%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Excursionistas (H) 73.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -5.5%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -11.1%

Ituzaingó (A) 8.1%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excursionistas face Ituzaingó in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excursionistas a 74% chance, the draw 18% and Ituzaingó 8%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Excursionistas and 0.5 for Ituzaingó (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excursionistas are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.25 for Ituzaingó. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +25.8%.

Excursionistas vs Ituzaingó Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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