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Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 21:30

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nacional Asuncion

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-112.2%0-26.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-17.4%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 40.0% 2.50 -10.3%

Draw 27.7% 36.4% 2.75 -14.3%

Away win 36.4% 33.3% 3.00 +9.2%

Over 2.5 48.9% 40.0% 2.50 +22.3%

Over 3.5 27.7% 20.0% 5.00 +23.1%

BTTS 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away O1.5 32.5% 29.4% 3.40 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.2%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 1–0 12.6%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Porteno1.1

Nacional Asuncion1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.79

NACIONAL ASUNCION · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Porteno (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.3%

Nacional Asuncion (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face Nacional Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Nacional Asuncion 36%, so Nacional Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cerro Porteno and 1.1 for Nacional Asuncion (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.27 for Nacional Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.1%.

Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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