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Libertad Asuncion vs Rubio NU Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Libertad Asuncion

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rubio NU

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 54% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 53.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.5%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.5%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.4%3-16.3%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -11.5%

Away win 24.1% 21.7% 4.60 +6.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 32.4% 26.7% 3.75 +21.5%

BTTS 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 53.8% 1.86 +3.8%

Away O1.5 28.9% 25.0% 4.00 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad Asuncion1.9

Rubio NU1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD ASUNCION · PPG 1.82

RUBIO NU · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Libertad Asuncion (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -11.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

Rubio NU (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad Asuncion face Rubio NU in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad Asuncion a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Rubio NU 24%, so Libertad Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Libertad Asuncion and 1.0 for Rubio NU (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad Asuncion are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.17 for Rubio NU. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.5%.

Libertad Asuncion vs Rubio NU Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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