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Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Libertad Asuncion

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.8%0-26.1%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 48.5% 2.06 -25.0%

Draw 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -6.8%

Away win 35.9% 29.4% 3.40 +22.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.4% 27.0% 3.70 +3.0%

BTTS 52.4% 55.6% 1.80 -5.7%

Home O1.5 32.8% 45.5% 2.20 -27.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.4%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Porteno1.2

Libertad Asuncion1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.89

LIBERTAD ASUNCION · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Porteno (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -25.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.8%

Libertad Asuncion (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Porteno face Libertad Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Porteno a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Libertad Asuncion 36%, so Cerro Porteno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cerro Porteno and 1.1 for Libertad Asuncion (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Porteno are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.67 for Libertad Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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