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Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 19:00

Nacional Asuncion

PPG 2.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

Libertad Asuncion

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.2%0-24.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.0%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.3%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 40.0% 2.50 +14.0%

Draw 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -10.3%

Away win 26.8% 35.7% 2.80 -15.0%

Over 2.5 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

Over 3.5 25.5% 25.0% 4.00 +1.2%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% 37.7% 2.65 +1.8%

Away O1.5 25.9% 34.7% 2.88 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 44.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional Asuncion1.3

Libertad Asuncion0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL ASUNCION · PPG 2.01

LIBERTAD ASUNCION · PPG 1.59

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacional Asuncion (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +14.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.3%

Libertad Asuncion (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional Asuncion face Libertad Asuncion in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional Asuncion a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Libertad Asuncion 27%, so Nacional Asuncion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nacional Asuncion and 0.9 for Libertad Asuncion (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional Asuncion are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.59 for Libertad Asuncion. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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