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Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:30

Sportivo Luqueno

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 50% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+28.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.6%0-25.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 38.2% 2.62 +11.1%

Draw 23.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.9%

Away win 34.2% 38.5% 2.60 -11.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 46.5% 2.15 +28.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 26.7% 3.75 +36.5%

BTTS 59.3% 54.1% 1.85 +9.7%

Home O1.5 40.8% 38.2% 2.62 +6.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.2% 2.62 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.3%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Luqueno1.5

Sportivo Ameliano1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO LUQUENO · PPG 1.18

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 0.95

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

50%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Luqueno (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +11.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.9%

Sportivo Ameliano (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Luqueno face Sportivo Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Luqueno a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Sportivo Ameliano 34%, so Sportivo Luqueno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.4 for Sportivo Ameliano (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Luqueno are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.95 for Sportivo Ameliano. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.5%.

Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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