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Club Guarani vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:00

Club Guarani

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Recoleta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 54% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.0%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.9%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.5%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 51.3% 1.95 +3.7%

Draw 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Away win 23.1% 27.8% 3.60 -10.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 51.3% 1.95 +16.4%

Over 3.5 36.9% 30.8% 3.25 +19.9%

BTTS 59.0% 57.1% 1.75 +3.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 50.0% 2.00 +11.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Guarani2.0

Deportivo Recoleta1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB GUARANI · PPG 1.56

DEPORTIVO RECOLETA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Guarani (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.7%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Deportivo Recoleta (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Guarani face Deportivo Recoleta in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Guarani a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Recoleta 23%, so Club Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Club Guarani and 1.2 for Deportivo Recoleta (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Guarani are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Deportivo Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +38.1%.

Club Guarani vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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