Today / Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura / Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense

Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 19:00

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sportivo Trinidense

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-111.9%0-27.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 38.8% 2.58 -6.9%

Draw 27.9% 32.8% 3.05 -8.9%

Away win 36.0% 37.6% 2.66 -4.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 44.4% 2.25 +13.0%

Over 3.5 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +11.1%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 44.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Ameliano1.1

Sportivo Trinidense1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 1.48

SPORTIVO TRINIDENSE · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Ameliano (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -6.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.9%

Sportivo Trinidense (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Ameliano face Sportivo Trinidense in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Ameliano a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sportivo Trinidense 36%, so Sportivo Ameliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.2 for Sportivo Trinidense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Ameliano are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.56 for Sportivo Trinidense. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Trinidense Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura Predictions