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2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 21:30

2 de Mayo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sportivo Luqueno

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+19.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.0%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.4%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 45.0% 2.22 +19.0%

Draw 24.5% 31.7% 3.15 -13.7%

Away win 21.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 41.7% 2.40 +15.4%

Away O1.5 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

2 de Mayo1.6

Sportivo Luqueno0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

2 DE MAYO · PPG 2.00

SPORTIVO LUQUENO · PPG 1.35

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

2 de Mayo (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +19.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -13.7%

Sportivo Luqueno (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

2 de Mayo face Sportivo Luqueno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 2 de Mayo a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Sportivo Luqueno 22%, so 2 de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for 2 de Mayo and 0.8 for Sportivo Luqueno (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 2 de Mayo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.35 for Sportivo Luqueno. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 2-2.

2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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