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Olimpia vs Club Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 21:30

Olimpia

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Guarani

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.8%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.8%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 58.1% 1.72 -23.1%

Draw 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Away win 29.1% 22.2% 4.50 +18.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 38.4% 54.1% 1.85 -29.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 27.0% 3.70 +22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 44.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia1.3

Club Guarani1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA · PPG 1.85

CLUB GUARANI · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -23.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

Club Guarani (A) 29.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia face Club Guarani in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Club Guarani 29%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Olimpia and 1.1 for Club Guarani (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.69 for Club Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.1%.

Olimpia vs Club Guarani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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