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Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 9 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:30

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

PPG 0.94 · HOME

UPCOMING

2 de Mayo

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-117.0%0-211.4%0-35.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.2%1-112.3%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.3%2-14.5%2-23.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.8%3-11.1%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -11.1%

Away win 50.2% 48.1% 2.08 +4.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 43.5% 2.30 -1.8%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 28.2% 3.55 +9.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 42.0% 2.38 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.0%

A 50% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.0%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.7

2 de Mayo1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB SP. SAN LORENZO · PPG 0.94

2 DE MAYO · PPG 1.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (H) 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.1%

2 de Mayo (A) 50.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Sp. San Lorenzo face 2 de Mayo in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Sp. San Lorenzo a 23% chance, the draw 26% and 2 de Mayo 50%, so 2 de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.3 for 2 de Mayo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Sp. San Lorenzo are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.75 for 2 de Mayo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs 2 de Mayo Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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