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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:30

Hapoel Beer Sheva

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Maccabi Tel Aviv

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.2%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.1%1-19.6%1-27.5%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.4%3-15.4%3-24.2%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 41.7% 2.40 +2.5%

Draw 22.8% 30.3% 3.30 -14.9%

Away win 34.5% 40.8% 2.45 -15.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Over 3.5 40.5% 42.0% 2.38 -3.6%

BTTS 63.4% 66.7% 1.50 -4.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Beer Sheva1.8

Maccabi Tel Aviv1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA · PPG 1.84

MACCABI TEL AVIV · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Beer Sheva (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +2.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.9%

Maccabi Tel Aviv (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Beer Sheva face Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Maccabi Tel Aviv 35%, so Hapoel Beer Sheva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.6 for Maccabi Tel Aviv (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Beer Sheva are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.80 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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