Today / Israel - Ligat Ha'al / Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 17:30

Hapoel Tel Aviv

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Beitar Jerusalem

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.5%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.7%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 37.7% 2.65 +17.4%

Draw 26.8% 29.4% 3.40 -5.3%

Away win 28.9% 42.0% 2.38 -18.7%

Over 2.5 51.3% 57.8% 1.73 -11.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Home O1.5 46.0% 44.4% 2.25 +3.5%

Away O1.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Tel Aviv1.6

Beitar Jerusalem1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL TEL AVIV · PPG 2.17

BEITAR JERUSALEM · PPG 1.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Tel Aviv (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +17.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.3%

Beitar Jerusalem (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Tel Aviv face Beitar Jerusalem in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Beitar Jerusalem 29%, so Hapoel Tel Aviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.3 for Beitar Jerusalem (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Tel Aviv are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.94 for Beitar Jerusalem. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +14.8%.

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

More Israel - Ligat Ha'al Predictions