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Hapoel Katamon vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:45

Hapoel Katamon

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.3%0-26.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.7%1-111.5%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 38.8% 2.58 -10.0%

Draw 23.6% 31.7% 3.15 -15.4%

Away win 41.5% 38.8% 2.58 +7.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 33.1% 26.3% 3.80 +25.8%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 39.8% 38.2% 2.62 +4.3%

Away O1.5 44.9% 38.2% 2.62 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Katamon1.4

Ironi Kiryat Shmona1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL KATAMON · PPG 0.88

IRONI KIRYAT SHMONA · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Katamon (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -15.4%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Katamon face Ironi Kiryat Shmona in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Katamon a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Ironi Kiryat Shmona 42%, so Ironi Kiryat Shmona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hapoel Katamon and 1.5 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Katamon are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.98 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.8%.

Hapoel Katamon vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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