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Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30

Maccabi Haifa

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Hapoel Petah Tikva

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.9%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.4%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 65.4% 1.53 -31.0%

Draw 25.5% 24.4% 4.10 +2.7%

Away win 29.4% 19.2% 5.20 +31.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 42.6% 2.35 -25.5%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 66.7% 1.50 -26.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Haifa1.7

Hapoel Petah Tikva1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI HAIFA · PPG 1.90

HAPOEL PETAH TIKVA · PPG 1.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Haifa (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -31.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.7%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (A) 29.4%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Haifa face Hapoel Petah Tikva in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Haifa a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Hapoel Petah Tikva 29%, so Maccabi Haifa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maccabi Haifa and 1.2 for Hapoel Petah Tikva (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Haifa are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.07 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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