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Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:15

Bnei Sakhnin

PPG 1.04 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

UPCOMING

Beitar Jerusalem

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.5%0-25.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.6%1-111.6%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.9%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 17.2% 5.80 +163.9%

Draw 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

Away win 30.0% 71.4% 1.40 -58.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 55.1% 55.6% 1.80 -0.8%

Home O1.5 43.1% 23.1% 4.33 +86.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 66.7% 1.50 -36.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.1%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bnei Sakhnin1.5

Beitar Jerusalem1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BNEI SAKHNIN · PPG 1.04

BEITAR JERUSALEM · PPG 1.61

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bnei Sakhnin (H) 45.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +163.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.7%

Beitar Jerusalem (A) 30.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -58.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bnei Sakhnin face Beitar Jerusalem in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bnei Sakhnin a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Beitar Jerusalem 30%, so Bnei Sakhnin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bnei Sakhnin and 1.3 for Beitar Jerusalem (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bnei Sakhnin are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.61 for Beitar Jerusalem. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +127.8%.

Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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