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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:45

Maccabi Petah Tikva

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Ironi Tiberias

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.7%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.8%1-111.3%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.4%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 50.0% 2.00 -2.6%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 26.5% 29.0% 3.45 -5.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.9% 2.95 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Petah Tikva1.7

Ironi Tiberias1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI PETAH TIKVA · PPG 1.75

IRONI TIBERIAS · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Petah Tikva (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Ironi Tiberias (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Petah Tikva face Ironi Tiberias in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Petah Tikva a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Ironi Tiberias 27%, so Maccabi Petah Tikva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maccabi Petah Tikva and 1.2 for Ironi Tiberias (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Petah Tikva are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.98 for Ironi Tiberias. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Ironi Tiberias Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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