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Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Ramat Gan Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Hapoel Tel Aviv

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Hapoel Ramat Gan

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 63% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.7%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 74.1% 1.35 -28.3%

Draw 24.3% 23.1% 4.33 +3.1%

Away win 22.6% 15.4% 6.50 +28.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 55.8% 66.7% 1.50 -16.3%

Away O1.5 32.3% 22.2% 4.50 +45.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Tel Aviv1.8

Hapoel Ramat Gan1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL TEL AVIV · PPG 2.31

HAPOEL RAMAT GAN · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Tel Aviv (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -28.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.1%

Hapoel Ramat Gan (A) 22.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Tel Aviv face Hapoel Ramat Gan in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Hapoel Ramat Gan 23%, so Hapoel Tel Aviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.0 for Hapoel Ramat Gan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Tel Aviv are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.25 for Hapoel Ramat Gan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +47.3%.

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Ramat Gan Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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