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Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Hapoel Haifa

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hapoel Tel Aviv

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.4%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 23.1% 4.33 +87.9%

Draw 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Away win 34.2% 62.5% 1.60 -45.3%

Over 2.5 63.1% 57.8% 1.73 +9.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 36.4% 2.75 +8.1%

BTTS 63.1% 59.9% 1.67 +5.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 29.4% 3.40 +66.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Haifa1.8

Hapoel Tel Aviv1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL HAIFA · PPG 1.17

HAPOEL TEL AVIV · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Haifa (H) 43.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +87.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Hapoel Tel Aviv (A) 34.2%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Haifa face Hapoel Tel Aviv in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Haifa a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Hapoel Tel Aviv 34%, so Hapoel Haifa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hapoel Haifa and 1.6 for Hapoel Tel Aviv (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Haifa are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.21 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +142.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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