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Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Haifa Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:45

Maccabi Netanya

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Hapoel Haifa

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.5%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.4%1-111.2%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.5%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 52.4% 1.91 -7.0%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 34.0% 38.2% 2.62 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maccabi Netanya1.7

Hapoel Haifa1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCABI NETANYA · PPG 1.47

HAPOEL HAIFA · PPG 1.18

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maccabi Netanya (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -7.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Hapoel Haifa (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maccabi Netanya face Hapoel Haifa in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maccabi Netanya a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Hapoel Haifa 27%, so Maccabi Netanya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Maccabi Netanya and 1.2 for Hapoel Haifa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maccabi Netanya are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.18 for Hapoel Haifa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Haifa Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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