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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Haifa Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 1 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:00

Hapoel Beer Sheva

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Hapoel Haifa

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.7%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.6%1-111.3%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.3%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 71.4% 1.40 -35.0%

Draw 28.0% 23.0% 4.35 +13.1%

Away win 25.5% 14.7% 6.80 +44.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 65.4% 1.53 -21.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 43.5% 2.30 -27.3%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 70.4% 1.42 -29.1%

Away O1.5 33.4% 27.8% 3.60 +20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Beer Sheva1.7

Hapoel Haifa1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA · PPG 2.01

HAPOEL HAIFA · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Beer Sheva (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -35.0%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +13.1%

Hapoel Haifa (A) 25.5%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +44.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Beer Sheva face Hapoel Haifa in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Hapoel Haifa 26%, so Hapoel Beer Sheva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.2 for Hapoel Haifa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Beer Sheva are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.21 for Hapoel Haifa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +59.7%.

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Haifa Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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