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Petrojet vs AL Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Petrojet

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

UPCOMING

AL Masry

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.5%0-26.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.7%1-112.7%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-17.7%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.1%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 27.8% 3.60 +28.5%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 38.1% 48.8% 2.05 -21.9%

Over 2.5 52.7% 44.4% 2.25 +18.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.0% 4.00 +26.4%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 33.1% 28.6% 3.50 +15.8%

Away O1.5 42.1% 42.0% 2.38 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrojet1.2

AL Masry1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROJET · PPG 1.18

AL MASRY · PPG 1.68

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Petrojet (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +28.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

AL Masry (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrojet face AL Masry in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrojet a 36% chance, the draw 26% and AL Masry 38%, so AL Masry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Petrojet and 1.3 for AL Masry (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrojet are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.68 for AL Masry. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Petrojet vs AL Masry Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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