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National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

National Bank of Egypt

PPG 1.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Ghazl El Mehalla

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-112.3%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.0%1-113.3%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.6%2-17.2%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 57.1% 1.75 -25.8%

Draw 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away win 26.8% 20.0% 5.00 +20.4%

Over 2.5 38.8% 40.0% 2.50 -3.0%

Over 3.5 18.6% 22.2% 4.50 -9.8%

BTTS 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 45.5% 2.20 -32.2%

Away O1.5 23.6% 18.2% 5.50 +17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 0–0 14.9%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

National Bank of Egypt1.1

Ghazl El Mehalla0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NATIONAL BANK OF EGYPT · PPG 1.16

GHAZL EL MEHALLA · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

National Bank of Egypt (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -25.8%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.3%

Ghazl El Mehalla (A) 26.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

National Bank of Egypt face Ghazl El Mehalla in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives National Bank of Egypt a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Ghazl El Mehalla 27%, so National Bank of Egypt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for National Bank of Egypt and 0.8 for Ghazl El Mehalla (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, National Bank of Egypt are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 0.91 for Ghazl El Mehalla. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.5%.

National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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