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Žalgiris II vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Žalgiris II

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.6%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 32.4% 3.09 +58.2%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 25.1% 49.0% 2.04 -29.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% — — —

Over 3.5 36.4% — — —

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 48.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žalgiris II1.6

Neptūną Klaipėda1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 2.09

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 1.82

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Žalgiris II (H) 51.2%

ODDS 3.09 · IMPLIED 32.4% EV +58.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Neptūną Klaipėda (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žalgiris II face Neptūną Klaipėda in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žalgiris II a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Neptūną Klaipėda 25%, so Žalgiris II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Žalgiris II and 1.1 for Neptūną Klaipėda (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žalgiris II are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.82 for Neptūną Klaipėda.

Žalgiris II vs Neptūną Klaipėda Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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