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FC Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 7 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

FC Midtjylland

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

UPCOMING

FC Nordsjaelland

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.1%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 50.0% 2.00 -6.0%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 28.5% 30.3% 3.30 -3.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 42.0% 2.38 -24.6%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 57.8% 1.73 -16.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Midtjylland1.6

FC Nordsjaelland1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 2.10

FC NORDSJAELLAND · PPG 1.33

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Midtjylland (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

FC Nordsjaelland (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Midtjylland face FC Nordsjaelland in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Midtjylland a 47% chance, the draw 25% and FC Nordsjaelland 28%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Midtjylland and 1.1 for FC Nordsjaelland (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Midtjylland are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Nordsjaelland.

FC Midtjylland vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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