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Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908 Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 15:00

Asteras Tripolis

PPG 1.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Iraklis 1908

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.4%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.1%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Draw 25.9% 30.8% 3.25 -9.5%

Away win 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 29.5% 26.7% 3.75 +6.4%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Away O1.5 30.2% 26.7% 3.75 +13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asteras Tripolis1.6

Iraklis 19081.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS · PPG 1.16

IRAKLIS 1908 · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Asteras Tripolis (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.2%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.5%

Iraklis 1908 (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asteras Tripolis face Iraklis 1908 in Greece - Super League 1 on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asteras Tripolis a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Iraklis 1908 25%, so Asteras Tripolis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Asteras Tripolis and 1.0 for Iraklis 1908 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 1.21 for Iraklis 1908. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.3%.

Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis 1908 Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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