Today / Greece - Super League 1 / Atromitos vs PAOK

Atromitos vs PAOK Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Atromitos logo
Atromitos
PPG 1.29 · HOME
LAST 5
LL ···
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
PAOK logo
PAOK
PPG 1.50 · AWAY
LAST 5
WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.4%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.9%1-112.6%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.4%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 36.2% 22.0% 4.55 +64.7%
Draw 27.6% 27.4% 3.65 +0.4%
Away win 36.3% 59.5% 1.68 -39.0%
Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%
Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%
BTTS 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%
Home O1.5 37.5% 29.4% 3.40 +27.5%
Away O1.5 36.6% 57.1% 1.75 -35.9%

League track record

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%
O2.5 33%
BTTS 56%
Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE
✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.1%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%
#2 1–2 8.0%
#3 0–0 7.4%
#4 2–1 8.4%
#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atromitos1.3
PAOK1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATROMITOS · PPG 1.29

PAOK · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity
70%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atromitos (H) 36.2%
ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +64.7%
Draw 27.6%
ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.4%
PAOK (A) 36.3%
ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -39.0%

Season Statistics average per match · 2 matches · 2026

Atromitos ▾ lower is better PAOK

Attack

12.0
Shots
13.5
2.0
Shots on target
4.5
6.5
Shots off target
7.0
3.5
Blocked shots
2.0
5.0
Shots inside box
10.0
7.0
Shots outside box
3.5
16.7%
Shooting accuracy
33.3%
25.0%
Goals per shot on target
66.7%
0.50
Goals
3.00
0.71
xG for
1.85

Defence

20.0
Shots faced
12.0
7.0
Shots on target faced
2.0
1.50
Goals conceded
0.50
2.33
xG against
0.80
5.5
Goalkeeper saves
1.0

Control

38.5%
Possession
54.0%
284
Passes
452
209
Accurate passes
368
73.7%
Pass accuracy
81.4%
3.0
Corners
4.5
10.0
Corners faced
1.5
0.5
Offsides
1.5

Discipline

16.5
Fouls
19.5
3.5
Yellow cards
0.5
0.00
Red cards
0.00

Match Preview & Prediction

Atromitos face PAOK in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atromitos a 36% chance, the draw 28% and PAOK 36%, so PAOK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atromitos and 1.3 for PAOK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atromitos are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for PAOK. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +42.2%. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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