Today / Greece - Super League 1 / Atromitos vs PAOK
Atromitos vs PAOK Prediction— Greece - Super League 1
Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%
Form & verdict
ATROMITOS · PPG 1.29
PAOK · PPG 1.50
xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Atromitos face PAOK in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atromitos a 36% chance, the draw 28% and PAOK 36%, so PAOK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atromitos and 1.3 for PAOK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atromitos are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for PAOK. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +42.2%. This match finished 1-2.