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Levadiakos vs Panetolikos Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Levadiakos

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Panetolikos

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 51% chance

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.6%0-25.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.3%1-112.2%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 54.1% 1.85 -33.6%

Draw 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Away win 40.1% 25.0% 4.00 +60.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 40.1% 28.6% 3.50 +40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 0–1 8.6%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levadiakos1.4

Panetolikos1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVADIAKOS · PPG 1.55

PANETOLIKOS · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

51%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Levadiakos (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -33.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Panetolikos (A) 40.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +60.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levadiakos face Panetolikos in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levadiakos a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Panetolikos 40%, so Panetolikos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Levadiakos and 1.3 for Panetolikos (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levadiakos are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.29 for Panetolikos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.3%.

Levadiakos vs Panetolikos Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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