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Panathinaikos vs PAOK Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:30

Panathinaikos

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

PAOK

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.3%0-25.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.9%1-112.5%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.4%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 44.4% 2.25 -17.4%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

Away win 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 39.3% 42.0% 2.38 -6.5%

Away O1.5 37.2% 38.2% 2.62 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panathinaikos1.3

PAOK1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PANATHINAIKOS · PPG 1.75

PAOK · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Panathinaikos (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.2%

PAOK (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panathinaikos face PAOK in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panathinaikos a 37% chance, the draw 27% and PAOK 36%, so Panathinaikos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Panathinaikos and 1.3 for PAOK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panathinaikos are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for PAOK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Panathinaikos vs PAOK Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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