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Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30

Aris Thessalonikis

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

OFI

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.8%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 61.0% 1.64 -27.4%

Draw 26.7% 27.4% 3.65 -1.5%

Away win 29.0% 20.6% 4.85 +24.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 44.3% 57.1% 1.75 -22.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 27.0% 3.70 +22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aris Thessalonikis1.5

OFI1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARIS THESSALONIKIS · PPG 1.50

OFI · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aris Thessalonikis (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -27.4%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.5%

OFI (A) 29.0%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aris Thessalonikis face OFI in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 44% chance, the draw 27% and OFI 29%, so Aris Thessalonikis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.1 for OFI (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.14 for OFI. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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