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AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

AEK Athens FC

PPG 2.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Aris Thessalonikis

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.7%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.4%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 73.5% 1.36 -28.2%

Draw 24.4% 22.2% 4.50 +5.9%

Away win 22.8% 13.3% 7.50 +42.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.3% 2.68 -15.3%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 66.7% 1.50 -25.1%

Away O1.5 26.1% 19.0% 5.25 +22.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AEK Athens FC1.7

Aris Thessalonikis0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AEK ATHENS FC · PPG 2.32

ARIS THESSALONIKIS · PPG 1.68

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AEK Athens FC (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -28.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.9%

Aris Thessalonikis (A) 22.8%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +42.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AEK Athens FC face Aris Thessalonikis in Greece - Super League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AEK Athens FC a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Aris Thessalonikis 23%, so AEK Athens FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AEK Athens FC and 0.9 for Aris Thessalonikis (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 1.68 for Aris Thessalonikis. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +35.2%.

AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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