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Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Asteras Tripolis

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Olympiakos Piraeus

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.0%0-26.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.2%1-112.8%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.8%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 10.8% 9.30 +237.6%

Draw 27.7% 22.7% 4.40 +13.1%

Away win 36.0% 75.2% 1.33 -52.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 50.8% 46.5% 2.15 +9.2%

Home O1.5 37.2% 16.0% 6.25 +132.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 65.4% 1.53 -44.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.8%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1✓ 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asteras Tripolis1.3

Olympiakos Piraeus1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTERAS TRIPOLIS · PPG 1.39

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Asteras Tripolis (H) 36.3%

ODDS 9.30 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +237.6%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +13.1%

Olympiakos Piraeus (A) 36.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -52.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asteras Tripolis face Olympiakos Piraeus in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asteras Tripolis a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Olympiakos Piraeus 36%, so Asteras Tripolis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Asteras Tripolis and 1.2 for Olympiakos Piraeus (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.82 for Olympiakos Piraeus. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +157.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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