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Atromitos vs Kalamata Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Atromitos

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Kalamata

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.0%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.1%1-112.2%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Away win 28.2% 25.6% 3.90 +6.0%

Over 2.5 50.6% 50.0% 2.00 +1.2%

Over 3.5 30.1% 28.6% 3.50 +5.3%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 40.6% 52.4% 1.91 -22.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 28.6% 3.50 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atromitos1.5

Kalamata1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATROMITOS · PPG 1.07

KALAMATA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atromitos (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -15.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

Kalamata (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atromitos face Kalamata in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atromitos a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Kalamata 28%, so Atromitos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atromitos and 1.1 for Kalamata (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atromitos are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.25 for Kalamata. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

Atromitos vs Kalamata Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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