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OFI vs Kifisia Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

OFI

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Kifisia

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.0%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.5%1-111.6%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 46.5% 2.15 +6.6%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -11.1%

Away win 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 26.7% 3.75 +5.9%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

Away O1.5 30.7% 30.8% 3.25 -0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OFI1.7

Kifisia1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OFI · PPG 1.75

KIFISIA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

OFI (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.1%

Kifisia (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

OFI face Kifisia in Greece - Super League 1 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFI a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Kifisia 24%, so OFI are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for OFI and 1.0 for Kifisia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFI are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Kifisia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%.

OFI vs Kifisia Prediction— Greece - Super League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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