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Club Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

Club Guarani

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sportivo Ameliano

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.9%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.2%1-111.6%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 42.7% 2.34 +10.2%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 28.3% 33.6% 2.98 -9.4%

Over 2.5 53.2% 46.5% 2.15 +14.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 25.3% 3.95 +24.4%

BTTS 53.4% 54.6% 1.83 -2.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 40.8% 2.45 +19.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 71%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Guarani1.7

Sportivo Ameliano1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB GUARANI · PPG 1.63

SPORTIVO AMELIANO · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Guarani (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +10.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Sportivo Ameliano (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Guarani face Sportivo Ameliano in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Guarani a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Sportivo Ameliano 28%, so Club Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Club Guarani and 1.0 for Sportivo Ameliano (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Guarani are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.94 for Sportivo Ameliano. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +31.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Club Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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