Today / El-Salvador - Primera Division / Águila vs Alianza

Águila vs Alianza Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:00

Águila

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

UPCOMING

Alianza

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.5%0-25.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.0%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.4%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 44.4% 2.25 -11.6%

Draw 24.4% 35.7% 2.80 -19.0%

Away win 36.3% 32.3% 3.10 +12.5%

Over 2.5 55.8% 46.5% 2.15 +20.0%

Over 3.5 35.0% 26.6% 3.76 +31.6%

BTTS 59.0% 54.6% 1.83 +8.0%

Home O1.5 39.8% 42.6% 2.35 -6.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 32.9% 3.04 +28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Águila1.4

Alianza1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUILA · PPG 1.47

ALIANZA · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Águila (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -11.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.0%

Alianza (A) 36.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Águila face Alianza in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águila a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Alianza 36%, so Águila are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Águila and 1.4 for Alianza (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águila are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.42 for Alianza. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.6%.

Águila vs Alianza Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More El-Salvador - Primera Division Predictions