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Isidro Metapán vs Alianza Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

Isidro Metapán

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alianza

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.3%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.3%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.2%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 48.8% 2.05 -15.1%

Draw 28.5% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Away win 30.1% 28.6% 3.50 +5.3%

Over 2.5 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

Over 3.5 27.8% 25.6% 3.90 +5.1%

BTTS 52.1% 51.3% 1.95 +1.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 43.9% 2.28 -13.8%

Away O1.5 35.5% 29.2% 3.42 +21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Isidro Metapán1.3

Alianza1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ISIDRO METAPÁN · PPG 1.89

ALIANZA · PPG 1.68

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Isidro Metapán (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.1%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Alianza (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Isidro Metapán face Alianza in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Isidro Metapán a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza 30%, so Isidro Metapán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Isidro Metapán and 1.1 for Alianza (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Isidro Metapán are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.68 for Alianza. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Isidro Metapán vs Alianza Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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