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Firpo vs Platense Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:30

Firpo

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Platense

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-17.2%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-111.3%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.8%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 67.6% 1.48 -21.7%

Draw 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -3.0%

Away win 22.1% 16.1% 6.20 +22.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Over 3.5 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

BTTS 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 60.6% 1.65 -25.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 23.1% 4.33 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.7%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Firpo1.6

Platense0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FIRPO · PPG 2.18

PLATENSE · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Firpo (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.7%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.0%

Platense (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Firpo face Platense in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Firpo a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Platense 22%, so Firpo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Firpo and 0.7 for Platense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Firpo are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.12 for Platense. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Firpo vs Platense Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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