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Cacahuatique vs Municipal Limeño Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

Cacahuatique

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Municipal Limeño

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.5%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.9%1-111.8%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 46.5% 2.15 -0.2%

Draw 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -9.9%

Away win 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -9.0%

Over 2.5 51.9% 50.0% 2.00 +3.8%

Over 3.5 30.9% 29.0% 3.45 +6.6%

BTTS 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Home O1.5 46.9% 46.5% 2.15 +0.8%

Away O1.5 36.2% 35.7% 2.80 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cacahuatique1.6

Municipal Limeño1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CACAHUATIQUE · PPG 1.14

MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cacahuatique (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.9%

Municipal Limeño (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cacahuatique face Municipal Limeño in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cacahuatique a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Municipal Limeño 27%, so Cacahuatique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cacahuatique and 1.2 for Municipal Limeño (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cacahuatique are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.80 for Municipal Limeño. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Cacahuatique vs Municipal Limeño Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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