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FAS vs Firpo Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:30

FAS

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Firpo

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.1%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.8%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 42.0% 2.38 -13.4%

Draw 27.7% 33.9% 2.95 -11.0%

Away win 35.9% 33.3% 3.00 +7.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

BTTS 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 42.6% 2.35 -12.6%

Away O1.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FAS1.3

Firpo1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FAS · PPG 2.23

FIRPO · PPG 1.66

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FAS (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -13.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.0%

Firpo (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FAS face Firpo in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FAS a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Firpo 36%, so FAS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FAS and 1.2 for Firpo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FAS are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.66 for Firpo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 3-1.

FAS vs Firpo Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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