Today / El-Salvador - Primera Division / FAS vs Águila

FAS vs Águila Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 02:00

FAS

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Águila

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-19.9%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.6%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.3%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 48.8% 2.05 +13.6%

Draw 22.1% 33.3% 3.00 -20.2%

Away win 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Over 2.5 60.5% 51.3% 1.95 +18.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% 31.8% 3.14 +16.2%

BTTS 58.2% 57.1% 1.75 +1.8%

Home O1.5 55.5% 48.3% 2.07 +14.9%

Away O1.5 32.3% 33.6% 2.98 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.2%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0✓ 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FAS2.0

Águila1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FAS · PPG 2.12

ÁGUILA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FAS (H) 55.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +13.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.2%

Águila (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FAS face Águila in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FAS a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Águila 23%, so FAS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FAS and 1.0 for Águila (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FAS are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Águila. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 1-0.

FAS vs Águila Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More El-Salvador - Primera Division Predictions