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Platense vs Alianza Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 21:00

Platense

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Alianza

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.6%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.2%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 35.1% 2.85 +29.1%

Draw 27.5% 33.9% 2.95 -11.3%

Away win 27.2% 40.8% 2.45 -20.0%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 34.8% 35.1% 2.85 -0.8%

Away O1.5 31.1% 39.2% 2.55 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.8%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Platense1.2

Alianza1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PLATENSE · PPG 1.70

ALIANZA · PPG 1.47

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Platense (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +29.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.3%

Alianza (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Platense face Alianza in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Platense a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza 27%, so Platense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Platense and 1.0 for Alianza (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Platense are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.47 for Alianza. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Platense vs Alianza Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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