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Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:00

Águila

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fuerte San Francisco

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.0%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 61.7% 1.62 -29.2%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 29.3% 19.0% 5.25 +32.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 55.6% 1.80 -27.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 23.8% 4.20 +36.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Águila1.4

Fuerte San Francisco1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUILA · PPG 1.26

FUERTE SAN FRANCISCO · PPG 0.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Águila (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -29.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Fuerte San Francisco (A) 29.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Águila face Fuerte San Francisco in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Águila a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Fuerte San Francisco 29%, so Águila are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Águila and 1.0 for Fuerte San Francisco (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Águila are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 0.86 for Fuerte San Francisco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +43.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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