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Municipal Limeño vs Isidro Metapán Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 22:00

Municipal Limeño

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Isidro Metapán

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-111.1%0-27.2%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.7%2-17.5%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 38.5% 2.60 -11.6%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -11.6%

Away win 39.1% 38.5% 2.60 +1.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.0% 3.85 +6.3%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 31.5% 38.5% 2.60 -18.1%

Away O1.5 39.3% 38.5% 2.60 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -72.4%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 39% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Municipal Limeño1.2

Isidro Metapán1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO · PPG 1.59

ISIDRO METAPÁN · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Municipal Limeño (H) 34.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -11.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.6%

Isidro Metapán (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Municipal Limeño face Isidro Metapán in El-Salvador - Primera Division on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Municipal Limeño a 34% chance, the draw 27% and Isidro Metapán 39%, so Isidro Metapán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Municipal Limeño and 1.3 for Isidro Metapán (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Municipal Limeño are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.33 for Isidro Metapán. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Municipal Limeño vs Isidro Metapán Prediction— El-Salvador - Primera Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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