Today / Colombia - Primera B / Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC

Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 22:30

Real Cartagena

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tigres FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.7%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.3%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 80.0% 1.25 -33.4%

Draw 24.5% 20.0% 5.00 +13.5%

Away win 22.1% 10.3% 9.75 +69.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 29.0% 35.7% 2.80 -11.3%

BTTS 52.4% 45.5% 2.20 +15.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 71.4% 1.40 -31.5%

Away O1.5 23.5% 16.7% 6.00 +24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cartagena1.7

Tigres FC0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 2.07

TIGRES FC · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Cartagena (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -33.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +13.5%

Tigres FC (A) 22.1%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +69.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cartagena face Tigres FC in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cartagena a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Tigres FC 22%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Cartagena and 0.8 for Tigres FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cartagena are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigres FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +103.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Real Cartagena vs Tigres FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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