Today / Brazil - Serie D / ASA vs Uberlandia

ASA vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Final ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

ASA

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uberlandia

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-111.5%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.5%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-15.8%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.6%3-11.9%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 50.0% 2.00 -9.8%

Draw 32.0% 32.3% 3.10 -0.8%

Away win 22.9% 30.3% 3.30 -14.7%

Over 2.5 34.6% 40.0% 2.50 -13.5%

Over 3.5 13.7% 22.2% 4.50 -23.0%

BTTS 42.4% 44.4% 2.25 -4.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Away O1.5 14.0% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.4%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.5%

#2 0–0 21.4%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASA1.0

Uberlandia0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ASA · PPG 2.20

UBERLANDIA · PPG 2.10

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ASA (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.8%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.8%

Uberlandia (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

ASA face Uberlandia in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASA a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Uberlandia 23%, so ASA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for ASA and 0.5 for Uberlandia (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASA are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.10 for Uberlandia.

ASA vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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