Today / Brazil - Serie D / Goiatuba EC vs Sao Jose

Goiatuba EC vs Sao Jose Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Final ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 22:00

Goiatuba EC

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sao Jose

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.4%0-16.6%0-21.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.8%1-18.4%1-21.4%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-15.3%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.9%3-12.2%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 47.6% 2.10 +19.5%

Draw 28.9% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Away win 14.3% 28.6% 3.50 -30.0%

Over 2.5 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Over 3.5 14.7% 18.2% 5.50 -11.5%

BTTS 32.4% 42.0% 2.38 -22.9%

Home O1.5 38.4% 36.4% 2.75 +5.6%

Away O1.5 11.1% 23.1% 4.33 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob32.4%

H 57% / xG 1.3-0.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 25.8%

#2 0–0 20.4%

#3 2–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 6.6%

#5 1–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goiatuba EC1.3

Sao Jose0.3

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIATUBA EC · PPG 2.22

SAO JOSE · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Goiatuba EC (H) 56.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +19.5%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Sao Jose (A) 14.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goiatuba EC face Sao Jose in Brazil - Serie D on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goiatuba EC a 57% chance, the draw 29% and Sao Jose 14%, so Goiatuba EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Goiatuba EC and 0.3 for Sao Jose (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goiatuba EC are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.78 for Sao Jose. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.8%.

Goiatuba EC vs Sao Jose Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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