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Gama vs ASA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Semi-finals ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Gama

PPG 2.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

ASA

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.3%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.7%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 52.4% 1.91 -1.1%

Draw 25.0% 34.7% 2.88 -16.8%

Away win 23.1% 23.8% 4.20 -1.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 38.2% 2.62 +32.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 49.2% 44.4% 2.25 +10.7%

Home O1.5 48.2% 42.0% 2.38 +14.7%

Away O1.5 23.5% 22.2% 4.50 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0✓ 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gama1.6

ASA0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GAMA · PPG 2.78

ASA · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gama (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -1.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.8%

ASA (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gama face ASA in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gama a 52% chance, the draw 25% and ASA 23%, so Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gama and 0.8 for ASA (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gama are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.67 for ASA. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Gama vs ASA Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie D Predictions