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ABC vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Semi-finals ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:00

ABC

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Uberlandia

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-111.3%0-23.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-16.6%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.4%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 54.1% 1.85 -19.3%

Draw 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

Away win 24.6% 23.8% 4.20 +2.0%

Over 2.5 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 42.0% 2.38 -26.5%

Away O1.5 16.7% 23.1% 4.33 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.2%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1✓ 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ABC1.1

Uberlandia0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ABC · PPG 2.33

UBERLANDIA · PPG 2.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.71 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ABC (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.3%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.6%

Uberlandia (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

ABC face Uberlandia in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ABC a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Uberlandia 25%, so ABC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for ABC and 0.6 for Uberlandia (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ABC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.22 for Uberlandia. This match finished 1-1.

ABC vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie D Predictions